Nan Guyan

Chapter 491 Probability

May 1st.

The casino on the third floor of Xintai Entertainment City officially began operations. It was very low-key, with no ceremony, and not many guests initially, only a little over thirty bosses and some bodyguards.

Bai Zheng personally led Afeng to receive them and gave them a tour of the entire casino layout.

The entire floor, covering five thousand square meters, was divided into two areas. The left half was for VIP private rooms, with a total of thirty-five rooms. The right half was the public gambling area, which was not yet in use.

In addition to the gambling tables, the private rooms also had resting areas with three beds. These rooms were fully equipped, allowing gamblers to rest, eat, and drink when they felt tired.

Subsequently, these bosses entered different VIP rooms to participate in gambling according to their preferences.

Yang Jian and his security team did not make an appearance, remaining on standby in the monitoring room in the center of the third floor.

This area served as both the security office and their dormitory. Li Chunlin and ten other security guards lived here. This location divided the casino into two parts: the private rooms on one side and the main hall on the other.

According to the casino's regulations, gamblers in the main hall could not freely enter the VIP area, while gamblers in the VIP area could move in and out at will.

Currently, only the VIP area was open. Therefore, the security department was divided into groups of five, led by Abao and Anan, working in two shifts. When not on duty, they were allowed to go out but were not permitted to stay out overnight unless there were special circumstances.

Thus, most of the time, the security department, apart from those on duty, were sleeping in the dormitories, ready to provide support when needed.

Their work was actually quite relaxed. They did not need to patrol the casino; it was sufficient for someone to monitor the surveillance videos. Additionally, the service staff working within the casino were equipped with walkie-talkies, allowing security personnel to respond quickly if any incidents occurred.

"Brother Bao, how is Baccarat played?"

Yang Jian sat in front of the large screen in the monitoring room, switching the view to a VIP room where a gambling game was in progress, and then asked Abao beside him.

In the center of this room was a semi-circular gambling table. Two beautiful female dealers sat at the center, while five gamblers were distributed at fixed positions on the outer circle. Five bodyguards stood behind them.

Each gambler had a betting area in front of them, marked with the characters for "Banker" and "Player."

The chips in front of the gamblers were made of crystal, some round and some square.

The square chips were high-value chips, marked with denominations of one hundred thousand, two hundred thousand, five hundred thousand, and one million.

The round chips were marked with denominations of five, ten, twenty, fifty, one hundred, two hundred, five hundred, one thousand, two thousand, five thousand, ten thousand, twenty thousand, and fifty thousand.

Abao pointed to the game on the screen and began to explain.

"Baccarat is the most popular game in Hong Kong and Macau. Over ninety-five percent of the revenue for all major casinos comes from Baccarat, so our establishment also focuses primarily on Baccarat.

That black box is the shoe, containing six decks of poker cards. The dealer draws four cards in sequence from the shoe and places them in pairs on the Banker and Player positions to compare their values. Nine is the highest point. Ten, Jack, Queen, and King are zero.

If either the Banker or Player has fewer than five points, they must draw a third card. However, if one side has an eight or nine, the other side, even with fewer than five points, loses and does not draw an additional card.

Equal points result in a tie. Neither the gambler nor the dealer wins or loses.

Gamblers have four betting options: besides betting on the Banker or Player, they can also bet on a Tie or Pairs.

Betting on the Banker to win incurs a five percent commission, meaning a hundred yuan bet only pays out ninety-five yuan.

Betting on the Player to win pays one to one.

Betting on a Tie pays eight to one.

Betting on Pairs pays eleven to one."

With Abao's concise explanation, Yang Jian, combined with the ongoing game on the video, quickly grasped the basic rules of Baccarat.

The minimum bet for these gamblers was one thousand yuan. The smaller chips were used for the commission, which was the five percent charged when the Banker won.

"Brother Bao, the Banker in this casino is also us. Relying on this five percent commission, isn't there a risk of losing money?"

Yang Jian realized that the operational model of this casino was completely different from those in mainland China.

Casinos here, compared to the mainland, were both gambling companies and principals, carrying the risk of losing money.

In contrast, mainland gambling companies and principals were separate. Gambling companies had almost no risk of losing money, while principals could potentially lose.

Abao smiled and said, "Casinos in Macau have two operational models. One is similar to yours in mainland China, where a portion of the VIP rooms are rented out to professional principals who are responsible for their own profits and losses, and the casino only collects rent or commissions.

The other model is where the casino is responsible for its own profits and losses. Most casinos operate this way, and so do we.

On the surface, this model seems to carry the risk of losing money, but in reality, the casino will eventually profit. Have you ever heard of a casino owner in Macau going bankrupt from gambling? They all make a fortune.

My master isn't foolish; would he undertake such a high-risk investment?"

"Then how does the casino profit?"

"Casinos play with probability, known as the law of large numbers. For example, a gambler might play ten, twenty, or a hundred hands and then run out of money or win some and leave. They might only play a hundred or so hands in total.

However, the casino operates continuously, with thousands of games played daily. The more games there are, the closer the probability of winning and losing becomes to fifty-fifty, according to probability theory. Do you think the casino will lose?

Coupled with the five percent commission, the casino is guaranteed to win.

Don't underestimate this five percent commission; the returns are tremendous. The more games played, the more commission is collected.

For instance, if there are ten thousand games in a day, and assuming the Banker wins half the time, that's five thousand hands subject to commission. At a standard commission of five hundred on a ten-thousand yuan bet per hand, five thousand hands would generate two and a half million in commission, and the actual commission collected would far exceed this figure.

With this model, do you still think the casino will lose money?"

Yang Jian nodded: "I understand. Casinos here operate on an all-day basis, organizing large groups of people to gamble and profiting through probability and commissions. It's very different from mainland casinos.

"Yes, additionally, the casino sets a limit for each bet, preventing extremely wealthy gamblers from recouping their losses in a single go.

Look at this game; the limit is five million. The total bet from the five of them on either the Banker or Player side cannot exceed five million.

This overweight gambler lost two hands in a row, a total of three million. He cannot bet three million in this hand because others have also placed bets, and the total is capped at five million.

This means that to break even, he would need to place several more bets and win them all. However, the variables are high, and he might continue to lose money.

Therefore, this increases the casino's probability of winning. The Banker might lose money in one room, but they won't lose in every room. The more rooms that are open for gambling, the greater the Banker's probability of winning."

"That makes sense. Mentality is also crucial in gambling. When winning, quit while you're ahead. When losing, double your bets. Ultimately, most gamblers lose more than they win."

"Exactly. This is one of the main reasons why 'even gods lose with prolonged gambling'."

Yang Jian smiled and asked, "Brother Bao, tell me honestly, would a casino like this cheat?"